Lessons of the Paddock

(Brendan Coutts, 'Business Review Weekly' - Sept 2006)

The performance of a football team is measured by its success on the field. But how do you measure the success of the club behind it?

The increasing commercialisation of football is profoundly changing what it means to lead a clubor franchise. When a club leaves the civic environment and enters the commercial arena, it becomes necessary to think of the enterprise as a provider of a service or a product, and to assess that service or product in terms of how it relates to the customer's expectations.

How can this be measured? There are an enormous number of statistics used to gauge the performance of a football team - most significantly the ladder. Often it is assumed that these statistics also double as an assessment of the football club, perhaps along with some financial indication of whether the club is going to be around again the following year.

However, the commercialisation of football suggests that the relationship that the public have with their team is different to the one they have with their club. They are supporters of the team; they are customers of the club.

So, based on this I've undertaken a rudimentary analysis of how clubs perform in the most basic of marketing principles - are they meeting the expectations of their customers?

There is plenty of focus on product quality - how good a team is (usually measured by its position on the ladder) - but not so much on product consistency or the frequency with which the expectations of the customer are met. So are clubs meeting the expectations of their customers? To answer this question it is necessary to perform a rudimentary analysis of how clubs perform in the most basic of marketing principles - how teams have performed compared to how they were expected to perform (as measured by the betting odds in the paper each Friday).

If a team wins when it is expected to, or loses when expected - this is meeting the customer's expectations. If a team wins when it is not expected to - this is exceeding the customers expectations. However, if a team loses when it is expected to win - this is failing to meet the expectations of the customer.






In the Australian Football League, Geelong has failed to meet the expectations of its customers significantly more often than any other club. Unexpectedly it has also exceeded expectations (winning games it was not expected to) more often than all but four other clubs.

Considering the model of the club as a product or service provider, this indicates a wide variability of product quality from this franchise.

This variability implies a couple of things.

One, there can be a tendency for customers to abandon a product with variable quality more easily than they would forsake one of lesser average quality, but whose quality is at least predictable. This suggests that clubs lower on the ladder than Geelong, but who provide consistent performances, might have a greater chance at retaining or growing their customer (membership) base than does Geelong.

Secondly, variable product quality has been found to almost always be the result of systemic problems, rather than the failings of individuals. This suggests that the disappointing season Geelong have had is most likely not directly the result of any failings of Mark Thompson who has been heavily criticised.

Where systemic issues create problems in an organisation, there is very often a tendency to look for individuals to blame - and in the case of football clubs, it is usually the senior coach who becomes the target for this, at least from the media. The Geelong Football Club itself appears to have taken a more balanced view of the problem and has undertaken an internal review of the entire operation of the club.

While this is preferable to scapegoating, or seeking to find fault with individuals, there is an underlying problem inherent in the approach that Brian Cook is taking at Geelong. This is that it can be very difficult to diagnose or address a systemic problem in an organisation from within the organisation itself. As Einstein said - a problem can't be solved using the same level of thinking which created it - and any internal review of an organisation unavoidably operates from within the existing culture or system and so can be blind to systemic problems.

Furthermore, an internal review by the CEO of an organisation is potentially severely limited because it is dependent on people being totally open and honest in their communication with the CEO - something which can't be taken for granted. Even in the unlikely case that a CEO is able to distance himself from the culture of the organisation, as well as from his own prejudices and preferences, it is very unlikely that everyone interviewed will feel totally comfortable being open and honest in a review which has every chance of jeopardising careers and relationships.

The leeking to the media (reportedly by a player manager) of information about the review which was apparently designed to put pressure on Mark Thompson's position, clearly illustrates how reviews like this can be used to push other, personal agendas. Under these circumstances, it is likely that at least some people within the club would be guarded in how they expressed themselves in an interview with the CEO.